Horrific!

Last night, the two major party nominees squared off for the first general election debate at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York.

It was a highly unsettling affair.

My nutshell impression is that the debate went to Hillary.

Yes, she came across as cold --almost imperious. Yes, her attempts to loosen up (for example, her "Whew! OK..." response to a Trump rant) were calculated and insincere. No, she did nothing to solve her "likeability" problem.

And yet, she won.

Or so it seemed to me.

Trump, under-prepared and undisciplined as always, appeared unhinged. He constantly interrupted Hillary, attempted to wrestle control of the debate away from hapless Lester Holt, and tossed out word salad responses that were largely incoherent. Example:

HOLT: Why is your judgment -- why is your judgment any different than Mrs. Clinton's judgment?

TRUMP: Well, I have much better judgment than she does. There's no question about that. I also have a much better temperament than she has, you know?

(LAUGHTER)

I have a much better -- she spent -- let me tell you -- she spent hundreds of millions of dollars on an advertising -- you know, they get Madison Avenue into a room, they put names -- oh, temperament, let's go after -- I think my strongest asset, maybe by far, is my temperament. I have a winning temperament. I know how to win. She does not have a...

HOLT: Secretary Clinton?

TRUMP: Wait. The AFL-CIO the other day, behind the blue screen, I don't know who you were talking to, Secretary Clinton, but you were totally out of control. I said, there's a person with a temperament that's got a problem.

Can anyone guess what he was trying to say here?

Trump's remarks ranged from ugly to downright destabilizing. For example, consider this:

TRUMP: And, number two, I said, and very strongly, NATO could be obsolete, because -- and I was very strong on this, and it was actually covered very accurately in the New York Times, which is unusual for the New York Times, to be honest -- but I said, they do not focus on terror. And I was very strong. And I said it numerous times.

One must wonder what governments in France, Germany and the United Kingdom must think when they hear the nominee of a major party in the United States cast doubt on NATO. With his cavalier, off-the-cuff remarks, Trump has managed to shake the stability of an alliance that has held together for 70 years!

Well, as I stated, I believe Hillary won the debate. But I'll be the first to admit that I'm not objective. To the husband of an immigrant, black, Muslim woman, and to a Mexican-American, Trump's rhetoric was alarming in the extreme. From my point of view, anyone who votes for Trump is expressing hostility toward me and my family.

But here's the rub: Trump's unscripted, cynical responses are right on the money for those who are already in the tank for him. This is what those people call "telling it like it is." Despite Hillary's seeming victory, the polls (which are tight as a drum) won't likely move very much.

As of this moment, it is unclear whether most voters will be motivated by hope or by fear. Fifty-six days to go, people. Let's see what happens.

Democrats, say 'no' to complacency!

Hoo boy!

One glance at this election forecast map, created by Nate Silver's organization, fivethirtyeight.com, and anyone can see that, as of this moment, Trump is on the verge of destroying the Republican party. Never mind the traditional swing states of Ohio, Virginia, and Florida where she's leading comfortably, as of this writing, Hillary is leading in Arizona! In North Carolina! In Georgia! She's on track to win 365 of the country's 538 electoral votes.

Important note about this map: it estimates the probability that each candidate will win a given state. It does not indicate the polling margins. So, according to the map, Hillary has an 87% chance of winning the general election based on current polling data. She does not have an 87 to 13 lead in the polls!

If it falls out this way, the way this map seems to indicate --well, that's a blowout. It could very well kill off what is left of the Republican party. And I sincerely hope that it comes to pass.

But, of course, as the son of an ultra-competitive football coach, I'm well-acquainted with the folly of taking comfort from an early lead.

So, in the interest of firing up my fellow liberals and progressives, consider what we stand to gain if Trump is routed in November:

• This would be the fourth popular vote victory for Democrats in the last 5 national elections. Republicans have long known that they're losing the demographic war, but a blowout this year means it's over. It means they have lost. The much-mentioned-but-ultimately-ignored GOP autopsy performed by Reince Priebus in the wake of Romney's 2012 loss will have proven both prophetic and futile. In spite of recognizing the need to build bridges with minority voters, the GOP will have proved itself incapable of overcoming the racism they began nurturing with their infamous Southern Strategy. 
• A Hillary victory will mean anywhere from 1 to 3 Supreme Court nominations from a Democrat rather than a Republican. For many years, progressives have endured horrendous decisions handed down by an anachronistic, reactionary court shaped by Republican presidents. (Citizens United is the most egregious example.) But, with Antonin Scalia's death earlier this year, and with Anthony Kennedy (80) and Ruth Bader Ginsberg (83) getting a little --er --long in the tooth, we have the chance to pack the court with young(ish) progressive justices. As we all know, the Supreme Court molds our national culture as much or more than does the President, or even Congress.
• And here's a tantalizing morsel for any Bernie Bros out there who can scarcely stomach the thought of voting for Hillary: if the Republican party collapses, the Democratic party won't be far behind. I wrote a piece about this idea back in 2010 (you can read it here). My hopes that year didn't bear fruit, but I think the idea is still valid. Quoting from my earlier post:

"If the GOP ceases to exist, it will kill the Democrats! If the Democrats are deprived of their ability to define themselves against the Republicans, they will fracture into their component parts: labor unions, environmentalists, racial and religious minorities, blue-collar workers, et alia. New alliances and coalitions would necessarily form, unrestrained by the corrupted two-party system. At long last, progressives would have a chance to make real change. We'd have to do it the way liberals always do: by bringing people together, building coalitions, working with others. But we'd have a better chance than we have now."

Folks, complacency is our enemy. Donald Trump's shocking implosion offers tantalizing possibilities for reshaping the political landscape. But it will only happen if he is not just beaten, but crushed.

So don't get overconfident in this period when Trump seems to be crashing and burning. The polls (and thus, the probabilities) will change. And, as we learned on that terrible day of November 2, 2004, one must never underestimate the stupidity of the American people.

In the end, it will be the racism that kills the GOP

Just the first of many racist comments by the presumptive GOP nominee

Even though, as of this writing, presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton appears to be walloping her Republican counterpart, Donald Trump, in the polls I expect that between now and November, there will be enough fluctuation in the numbers to have liberal hearts palpitating like those of frightened rabbits.

Nonetheless, I believe, ultimately, the GOP will crash and burn this fall. In an historic fashion. Because history teaches that any cause that has  racism and hatred at the core of its philosophy is doomed to betray itself.

Example 1: The Third Reich

In the summer of 1941, the German Wehrmacht was rolling across the steppes of the Ukraine, swallowing whole divisions of Red Army troops. The Ukrainians, who had only recently been overrun and oppressed by Russia, at first welcomed the Germans as liberators.

Kiev or bust!

But they soon learned the error of their ways.

As bigwig Nazi and lead administrator of occupied Ukraine Erich Koch said: "[Gernans] are a master race that must remember that the lowliest German worker is racially and biologically a thousand times more valuable than the population here."

Well, the Nazis acted on that sentiment. During the occupation, whole villages were lined up and shot. Men, women, children. Those who weren't killed outright were enslaved and worked to death. If you've got the stomach for it, you can read more here.

Soon, Ukrainians began forming partisan paramilitary groups to fight the German occupiers. No longer were the Germans liberators, but brutal oppressors. Rather than a welcoming populace, they faced a desperate, no-tomorrow resistance that contributed mightily to their defeat.

The Nazi creed was infested with the cancer of racism. Even as they drove for Moscow, that cancer was eating away at them.

Example 2: Confederate States of America

Or consider the case of the Confederacy during the War Between the States:

In 1862, the Confederate States of America were at the height of their success. They had successfully stymied Union advances into Confederate territory. Their morale was high and bungling Union generals seemed impotent against the military mystique of Robert. E. Lee and his lieutenants.

Confederates fought to preserve their "property rights"

Things looked so rosy for Jeff Davis and his gang that Britain and France, ever wary of the growing power of the United States, considered official recognition of the Confederacy as a nation, which would have been a tremendous boon to the "Cause."

But what stayed the foreign interventionists' hand was the institutional racism of slavery. Britain had abolished slavery in 1833; France in 1794. Slavery was so abhorrent to the British and French populations at large that their governments dared not recognize the CSA.

The inherent racism of the Confederacy closed off the life line of international recognition that they so desperately needed. Although it took another 3 years for them to recognize it, their cause was doomed from the start.

GOP today

Which brings us back around to Donald Trump and today's GOP.

Let's not get carried away here. The GOP's evil is but a pale shadow of the Confederacy's, and not at all comparable to that of the Nazis. Nonetheless, with modern-day racists flocking to the Trump banner , one must accept that Trump's message resonates with them.

"[Trump] has sparked an insurgency," frothed Don Black, founder of Stormfront, a white nationalist group.

Making friends all over the world.

With every racist pronouncement that Donald Trump makes, he wins ardent support from a certain element in this country. But at the same time, he drives away people who might agree with his trade policies (such as they are) or who are attracted to his thumb-your-nose-at-authority rhetoric, but who are absolutely repelled by his demagoguery against Muslims, Mexicans, and women.

Just as the Nazis and the Confederacy enjoyed early success in their horrific efforts, despite any successes the Trump movement may have as we progress toward November, the malignancy of racism dooms it.

Oregon comes through for Bernie

Not so fast, Hillary.

This morning, Oregonians awoke to the news that Senator Bernie Sanders won a big victory in our state's Democratic presidential primary election. Polling data before the election was sparse, but the polls I saw had Hillary ahead by a significant margin. So, this was a big upset. The margin of victory? A whopping 12 points!

Nonetheless, Hillary's delegate lead of ~700 delegates still seems insurmountable. The realist in me is resigned to it: Mrs. Clinton will be the Democratic nominee.

But Bernie's victory in Oregon, especially when aggregated with his other victories earlier in the season, is still important. Bernie has won approximately 43% of the popular vote (or roughly 10 million votes) in the primaries. That's a lot of voters, and it illuminates a very import political reality: Hillary needs the support of Bernie voters if she's going to win the general election in November.

I'm not among those who believe that a Clinton victory over the Republicans is assured. Hillary's "unfavorables," on the Left and the Right, are very high. There is a large portion of the electorate that will never vote for her.

Hillary knows that; and she knows that without Bernie's supporters, she will lose. Even to Donald Trump. So the manner in which the primaries conclude, and the manner in which the Democratic convention is conducted, becomes very important.

While they march to victory, the Clinton campaign is invested in making sure that Bernie supporters feel heard and respected. And the way to make that happen is to adopt positions that Sanders supporters can get excited about. Access to education, universal health care, increasing the federal minimum wage, Wall Street reform-- these are all issues on which Hillary must move to the left. Indeed, she has already done so on a number of issues. The campaign she is running today has changed for the better as a result of Bernie's success.

Today, I'm very proud of Oregon. We held true to our values in spite of the enormous weight of inevitability. It's going to pay off for us, too. Watch and see.

Portland feels the Bern!

Bernie takes the stage

Presidential candidate Senator Bernie Sanders came to the Rose City last night packing Portland's  Moda Center to capacity.

“Whoa. This is an unbelievable turnout,” Bernie said. "You've done it better than anyone else."

Indeed. As as I confidently predicted two days before the event, "Little Beirut" (as George Bush the Elder named us), brought together the biggest crowd for any candidate anywhere at any time so far this election season.

Some 28,000 people showed up at the Moda Center to hear Senator Sanders speak. The crowd overwhelmed the venue's 20,000 seating capacity and dwarfed the 15,000 person turnout in Seattle the day before. Eight to 9 thousand people were turned away at the door. (They didn't get completely shut out, however. Screens in the plaza outside Moda displayed a live video feed.)

Comrade Hauth and I, waiting for Bernie

Fellow left-wing freak David Hauth and myself walked the ~5 miles from my home to Moda Center, arriving 10 minutes before the doors were scheduled to open and over an hour before Bernie was to speak. But even at that early hour a torrent of Bernie supporters was already flooding into the arena. We were lucky enough to snag seats in the 200 level, behind the stage.

The general mood was upbeat and hopeful. These rallies always lift people's spirits. When Bernie took the stage, the crowd roared.

And the roaring continued, as Bernie talked about comprehensive immigration reform with a path to citizenship for undocumented workers, universal healthcare, affordable college education, civil rights, raising the federal minimum wage, and the need to overturn Citizens United.

Yes, we've got the guts to take you on, robber barons!

I shouted myself hoarse early on during the nearly hour-long speech. Bernie's remarks played like music to this progressive. But I honestly believe that if working- and middle-class conservatives are open-minded enough to listen, they might hear a lot that they like as well.

That's what makes the king-makers in both political parties nervous. Bernie's message is not partisan.

Twenty-eight thousand  in and around Moda Center. The biggest turnout of any campaign event anywhere, by any candidate, so far this election season

The conventional wisdom (at least among the national political punditry) is that Bernie can never win the nomination, that the hoopla and enthusiasm are all for naught. Maybe so. But like the 28,000 folks who came to the Moda Center last night, I'm on board with Bernie. Let's see how far we can take this thing.

Highlights from Bernie's speech:

Ranking the Republicans from bad to worst

Well, here we go. Another political primary season underway. It'll be a fascinating show, if you've got the stomach to watch it.

Last night, Fox News hosted the first Republican debate of the campaign.

(Actually, they hosted two debates. There are 17 major candidates vying for the Republican nomination. Too many to crowd onto a stage. So, with typical Fox News chicanery, Roger Ailes and his organization divvied up the debaters into two groups based on how they polled. Those candidates that polled in the top 10 got to appear in the "main" debate, which occurred in the evening and was watched by 1 in 6 American households. Those who didn't make the cut got to participate in the kiddie debate, which occurred in the non-prime time afternoon.)

I didn't get to watch either debate but, being the political junkie that I am, I'm well-acquainted with the candidates. (Sadly.)

And so, discounting the candidates in the kiddie debate whose support is down at the "white noise" level, I present here my ranking of the GOP field, rated from least bad to absolute worst.

 #10 John Kasich

I despised John Kasich when he was a loud-mouthed congressman from Ohio's 12th district back in the 90s and even more when he was a crazy-eyed Fox News host. His contempt for women's rights is deplorable, but that hardly makes him unique in this field of misogynists. And give him credit: when, as a first term governor of the Buckeye state, the voters rejected the union-busting centerpiece of his legislative agenda (by a 62-38 margin), he learned his lesson and took a more moderate approach. Honestly, Kasich is the GOP candidate I fear the most. He can appear reasonable at times. He voted in favor of the famous assault weapons ban that passed during President Clinton's first term and he expanded Medicaid in Ohio in order to receive the benefits afforded by the Affordable Care Act. Neither of those facts will sit well with the rabid GOP base.

#9 Rand Paul

Rand Paul claims to be a libertarian, whatever that may mean. He recognizes the futility and injustice of the "War on Drugs," and he has expressed legitimate concerns about the growing Big Brother state that has come in the wake of 911. On the other hand, his supposedly deeply held beliefs about personal liberty seem to evaporate when it comes to women's rights. And he's an Ayn Rand acolyte. Rand's world is not a world I want to live in.

#8 Chris Christie

Chris Christie missed his Big Chance^TM in 2012. Back then, he was riding high as a popular Republican governor in a sapphire-blue state. Republicans were desperate for a winner, and if they hadn't settled for hapless Mitt Romney, Christie might have fit the bill. But now that the bloom has come off his rose (with the Bridgegate scandal, with his embrace of President Obama), his time is gone. But don't take it too hard, Chris. You probably would have lost to President Obama in the general anyway...

#7 Ted Cruz

I used to think Ted Cruz was utterly despicable. The very sight of him would make my skin crawl. But now that I've learned a little more about him, I find him less odious than I had previously believed. Why? Because he's a showman. His antics (the pseudo-filibuster during which he read "The Cat in the Hat," his vow to "throw [him]self in front of a moving train to stop Obamacare," and so on) are delivered with a wink and a nod. The man is no fool. He clerked for the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. He was a debate champion at Yale University. Fools don't do things like that. (And how badly can you dislike anyone who is willing to call Mitch McConnell a liar to his face?) Cruz knows that to succeed in the GOP, he will have to appeal to the Tea Partiers and the Know-Nothings. He needs to make them believe he is the Real Deal^TM. I doubt he'll succeed, though. He's been Trumped.

#6 Marco Rubio

Nasty, morally adrift, and ambitious. That's how I describe Marco Rubio. He's an opportunist, which makes him not at all unique in politics, but he's banking his entire campaign on his youth, his ethnicity, and his ability to speak Spanish. Remember back in 2013, when Rubio was part of the so-called "Gang of Eight?" You know, that bipartisan group of senators who were tasked with writing a comprehensive immigration reform bill? When the product of that endeavor became known to the general public, Tea Partiers freaked out! "It's amnesty! It's rewarding law-breakers!" Etcetera, etcetera. So, how did Rubio react to the criticism? Did he demonstrate bold leadership and stand by the Gang of Eight plan in the interests of the country? Did he insist that the GOP get in line as part of a necessary outreach to Hispanics? Hell, no! He dropped the plan like a hot potato and jumped on the Tea Party's anti-immigration bandwagon. That's the kind of leader we would get with Marco Rubio.

#5 Ben Carson

I don't know a lot about Ben Carson. But here's all I really need to know about him: "Our military needs to know that they're not going to be prosecuted when they come back because somebody has said you did something that was politically incorrect," he said in an interview on Fox News. "There is no such thing as a politically correct war. We need to grow up. We need to mature." This is from a physician! Sorry, Ben, but torture and war crimes are more than just being "politically incorrect." They are gaping pits that descend into hell. They debase and dehumanize both the victims and the perpetrators. I know Tea Party folks eat that sh*t up with a spoon, but playing to it makes you weak and sycophantic.

#4 Donald Trump

The Donald is getting more media attention than any of the others on this list. And most of it is due to the vile and obnoxious spew that comes out of his mouth hole. He would make a a truly sh*tty president. In fact, were he to be elected (which will never happen) he would be a bigger disaster than any of these other men. But I just can't take him seriously. You see, despite his being a billionaire, I don't think the man is very bright. He's a megalomaniac who has captured the imagination of all the little would-be authoritarians that comprise the GOP base. He's a fad. He's a Tea Party cri de guerre.. Recall the 2012 primary season, when Republicans went through an entire slate of "anti-Establishment" candidates (Michelle Bachmann, Rick Santorum, even Newt Gingrich, for Christ's sake!) before settling on Mitt. Trump is that. Trump is their what-might-have-been dream. When the 2016 election is past, after they nominate Jeb Bush or Scott Walker and lose another national election, they will look back at the Donald and get all misty. Can't you just hear them now? "If we had nominated Donald Trump, we'd be in the White House right now!"

#3 Jeb Bush

Bush has got to be the odds-on favorite to win the nomination. This despite trailing Donald Trump by double digits in all the polls. (It's very early, people.) And, call me crazy, but I'm willing to bet that his campaign is very glad to have Donald Trump in the race. Trump is the lightning rod that draws away all the destruction and negative attention that might otherwise have come crashing down on Jeb. That's got to be a welcome reprieve given that Jeb hasn't proven himself to be a particularly effective campaigner. He's made several gaffes that are, frankly, pretty surprising. A few weeks ago he fumbled an obvious question about his idiot brother's Iraq adventure and, more recently, undid any women's outreach the GOP might have been developing by claiming that the federal government spends too much on women's health. But with a whopping $100 million war chest, Jeb is going to be in the race for a while. His positions are entirely malleable. The Tea Party folks don't like him, but they'll get in line. The GOP establishment knows that. And they know Jeb. He's part of the Old Boys' network. And the Old Boys have the money to make Jeb happen. For my part, his ape of a brother has precluded the possibility of me considering him as anything more than a stooge for the corporate elite. 

#2 Scott Walker

The union-busting governor of Wisconsin, Scott Walker, is about as low as they come. Smug, self-righteous, and unflappable, his demeanor alone is enough to make me change the station whenever I see him on the telly. Although he's certainly not a patrician, like Jeb, or a demogogue like Trump or Ted Cruz, he's something even worse. He's rejected the Medicaid expansion that would allow access to health care to low-income Wisconsinites. He's curtailed labor rights. He's thwarted any attempts in his state to combat global warming. He signed a bill to defund Planned Parenthood. The fact that he has only a high school education completes the profile. He's a real Tea Partier, people. He actually believes that sh*t. 

 

#1 Mike Huckabee

And finally, we've reached the bottom of the Republican barrel. This man is the worst possible choice for President of the United States. A moralizing hypocrite, a would-be dictator, and a religious zealot. He's all of those, dressed in an "ah, shucks" demeanor. While governor of Arkansas, Huckabee agressively pushed for the early release of serial rapist Wayne Dumond as a means of embarrassing his political nemesis, President Clinton. Then, when Dumond raped and murdered a woman in Missouri, Huckabee whitewashed his involvement in the affair. Huckabee's rhetoric is full of righteousness and fire and brimstone. He's a perfect encapsulation of the most ugly segment of the rightwing demographic: A pseudo-Christian hypocrite, a witch-hunter, a stone-caster. 

And there you have it

 

Well, that's it, folks. That's how I rank the current GOP field. Not that they care. None of these guys is worried about getting my vote. There are plenty of people who will buy their bunkum.

Besides, I'm a Bernie Sanders man.

Bernie Sanders for President!

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders announced this week that he will run for President of the United States in the upcoming national election.

The media is treating his candidacy with disdain, predictably enough. And really, I don't blame them. In today's political climate there are (at least) two sound reasons for doubting the Senator's chances.

Reason #1: Senator Sanders is running to be the Democratic nominee. That means he is running against Hillary Clinton and the well-funded, ruthlessly efficient Clinton political machine. A formidable (and if we're to believe the prevailing political wisdom, perhaps insurmountable) obstacle!

Reason #2: Although Senator Sanders is running as a Democrat, he is actually an independent and more specifically (hang on to your hats, right-wingers), he's a capital-"S" Socialist. He advocates raising taxes on upper incomes. He advocates a single-payer health care plan. Closed-minded right-wingers will be unable to see past those things.

But, unlike so many politicians from Hillary Clinton to Jeb Bush and everyone in between, Bernie Sanders doesn't run away from his political positions. He defends them. Here's a video: Bernie Sanders announces run for Presidency.

 I've followed Senator Sanders for years and from my perspective, he knows exactly what this country needs. He recognizes and rejects the seemingly inexorable drift from democracy to plutocracy. He sees the disastrous resource gap that exists between the middle class and the affluent. He sees the importance of addressing the looming climate change catastrophe. He vociferously opposes the unfair trade deals that have decimated manufacturing jobs in this country.

But that's just the beginning. You can learn more on his Facebook page.

For you Democrats out there: Were you really all that excited about a primary season that was shaping up to be little more than a Hillary Clinton coronation? Like many of you, I was resigned to voting for her, if I had to, but what little enthusiasm I had for that endeavor was due solely to her not being a Republican! I really didn't look forward to the endless equivocating, empty populism, and spineless pragmatism that characterizes Clinton politics. And I especially resented the presumption of supposedly in-the-know Democrats and media pundits who assured us that the nomination was hers for the taking. I wonder how nervous they are now, knowing that Senator Sanders raised $1.5 million in small donations the very first day of his campaign!

Open-minded right-wingers, I urge you to listen to Senator Sanders. Listen to what he has to say. Here's a video of him on your favorite news network, talking with Chris Wallace last Sunday: Bernie Sanders on Fox News.

Senator Sanders is running a populist campaign and he's aiming right at every American who has to struggle to get by in this land of plenty. All of us: rural folks, city folks, whites, Asians, Hispanics, blacks, middle class, working class, and working poor.

I'm behind him all the way. Please join me.

Bernie Sanders for President!