Crisis in Ukraine: Nothing we can do

Russian troops in Crimea

Crisis in the Ukraine. And here we are, these vaunted United States, fretting and wringing our hands with very little ability to influence events.

It's become a familiar role for us. If the last 15 years have demonstrated anything,  it is the limits of our global influence.

• Ukraine, this very moment --No matter what may have transpired in eastern Europe since the collapse of the Iron Curtain 23 years ago, Ukraine is still on Russia's front porch. And access to the Black Sea via Sevastopol is a vital Russian interest. As vital for them as is the Panama Canal to us. They will go to war over it. When Russian interests are this pronounced, there is very little we can do. Issue a series of sternly-worded communiques, haggle with western Europe over sanctions and watch Russia do as it will.
  
• Afghanistan, 2001-present --After a decade of war, the United States is set to withdraw from this "graveyard of empires" without having accomplished anything. The Taliban, the target of our invasion, lurks in the mountains, waiting us out. The future for the long-suffering Afghani people is not bright, but we've demonstrated that anything we might try to do to help them only makes matters worse.
  
  
• South Ossetia, August, 2008 --When this crisis occurred, people still believed we could impose our will through military projection. The whole thing was instigated when the supremely incompetent Condi Rice gave assurances to Georgia that the United States would stand by them in defying Russia over South Ossetia. When the Georgians attempted to put down a separatist uprising, Russian troops moved in and shattered Georgian aspirations. Georgian President Saakashvili pleaded with the US and western Europe for help. But once the crisis started, Junior had enough sense to know that he'd overreached. After all, Iraq and Afghanistan were already turning sour and Junior had no credibility left to defend. Saakashvili's pleas went nowhere.
  
• Syria, August, 2013 --In spite of the "line" that President Obama drew, credible reports indicate that the Assad regime went ahead and used chemical weapons on civilian populations. Reports indicated that casualties surpassed 14,000. For a time, it looked as though Obama would be compelled to launch a military response. After all, if a president issues empty ultimatums, the geopolitical stage is disastrously destabilized. But Secretary of State Kerry (perhaps inadvertently) provided an out that Syria and its sponsor state (Russia) quickly seized upon. Now, a diplomatic shell game is underway and President Obama looks foolish and impotent.
  
  
• North Korea, November, 2010 --In a shocking demonstration of defiance and power, North Korea shelled a South Korean military installation. Another in a series of provocative and audacious actions that have characterized the North Koreans for the last 60 years. New reports of atrocities add to the already despicable record of the North Korean regime. But beyond our trip-wire containment force on the DMZ, we can only stand back and watch.
  
• Iraq, 2003-2011 --The granddaddy of all foreign policy debacles, Iraq. Launched with deception and lies, driven by greed and fantastic visions of a reformed Middle East, Iraq at least served to leave no doubt about the limits of our influence. Iraq is still burning.

So, here we are, Year of Our Lord 2014, having spent a staggering $7 trillion on defense since 2001 --more than the combined military budgets of the 13 next biggest spenders. And with a full-blown geopolitical crisis unfolding, we're relegated to watching helplessly as the Russian bear mauls the Ukraine. 

US defense spending compared to the 13 next biggest spenders

Not that I'd advocate a military response, even if one were available. Junior Bush effectively demonstrated the limits of military power so that even the most dim-witted can see it. (Mad Johnny McCain and Lindsay Graham might be the exceptions.)

For a brief historical moment after the Soviet Union collapsed, it seemed the United States would be the world's only superpower. But global events over the past 15 years have dispelled that illusion.

It's not that the days of American global hegemony are over. It's that they never really were.

Can we all see that now?

Here's lookin' at you, kid.

Pandemic imminent

The World Health Organization (WHO) this morning raised the alert level for the swine flu (H1N1 virus) outbreak to phase 5, its second-highest level. In a phrase: "Pandemic imminent."

The outbreak appears to have originated in or near Mexico City, where there have been at least 152 deaths thus far. It is worth noting that the deaths are reported to have been nominally-healthy individuals between the ages of 25 and 50. The working theory is that when the virus infects a body, the infected person's immune system reacts strongly. So strongly that it attacks and destroys healthy lung tissue as it fights off the virus. Subsequent infection then claims the victim. This theory offers an explanation as to why those people that would seem to be least at risk (those between the ages of 25 and 50, with robust immune systems) seem to be most adversely affected.

The virus is spreading with all the rapidity one would expect in this linked-up global civilization. As of this writing, there are 92 confirmed cases in eleven states in the US. That number will undoubtedly be obsolete by the time I finish writing this post. There are also reports of cases in Canada, Australia, New Zealand and across Europe and Asia.

The spread puts to rest any quaint notions promoted by health officials of the possibility of containment. They used to throw that term around back in the day, just a few years ago, when bird flu was the scare. It seemed like a pipe dream then, and it seems even more so now. The reality is that, in today's world of supersonic jet travel and a world population that is constantly in motion, there is no such thing as containment.

We're all in this together.

So, before things get really crazy (if they do get crazy... we'll have to wait and see), before this thing causes people to start panicking or finding someone to blame or looting grocery stores, I want to take a moment and recall the short life of a 2 year-old boy from Mexico who last week went with his family to Brownsville, Texas to visit relatives.

The name of this little boy is not public knowledge. But we can assume that he had people around him who loved him. We can assume that he was, like most two-year-olds, beautiful and innocent and mostly kind. We can assume that he had the potential to greatness that is inherent in all human beings. And we can assume that when he came down with flu symptoms, his family was worried sick. When he didn't respond to treatments, they flew him to Houston.

And there he died. An unnamed 2-year-old Mexican boy. The first swine flu fatality in the United States.

Influenza porcina nos amenaza

Nunca se sabe de donde el próximo peligro viene.

Ahora, las noticias esta llena de informes de un estallido de la influenza porcina. En inglés, se dice "It came out of the blue."

Actualmente, con toda la atención en la crisis económica, en la guerra en Pakistan que amenaza a crecer, en los cien primero días de la administración del Presidente Obama, en los "memorándumes de tormentos," parece que no hay aire para un otro asunto en la mensa publica.

Pero, el muerte se queda el rey.

Ya, hay informes que la influenza ha esparcido de Mexico, donde ha matado a ciento tres personas, a los EEUU, e Europa, y también a Nueva Zealand. Esto podría ser la pandemia que todos nosotros temimos cuando había palabras sobre el gripe de pájaro. Pero en vez de China, el origen es Mexico.

Las noticias dice que, en la ciudad de Mexico, las escuelas estan cerrados, y la gente lleba máscaras mientras en el público. Ya, el temor crece en los EEUU. Hipócrita republicano, Rick Perry, el gobernador de Tejas, que hizo un exposición contra el estímulo federal financia, ha pedido dinero para preparar. (¿Cuán rápidamente?)

Bien, el pensamiento de un estallido masivo y mortal aterroriza, ¿no? Dice que las muertes en Mexico tuvieron entre 25 y 50 años. Personas relativamente jóvenes y sanas.

¿Quién sabe donde vamos? Espero que pueda encarar el futuro con valor. ¿Al fin, lo que está más allí?

(Perdóneme por favor para mi español malo.)

Despair claims Indian farmers

The Belfast Telegraph reported yesterday that over 1,500 farmers in the state of Chattisgarh, India, committed suicide after being driven into debt by crop failure and drought.

What can or should we read into the fact that some 1,500 human beings in one particular area of the globe decided that their only course of action was to drastically change their existential status? What does it mean?

Just about one year ago, stories cropped up everywhere about food riots all over the world. (You can read what I had to say about it here.)

Could this rash of suicides in an agricultural area of India be yet another indication that something larger is afoot? Have we entered some historic era in the chronicle of our species? Perhaps, even, the Final Chapter?

It is not clear from the article whether the suicides were some kind of en masse outcry, some tragic joining of anguished voices, or if they were the result of 1,500 individuals succumbing to despair.

Either way, people everywhere should take note. In this new, interconnected world, this "global" economy, there is no longer anywhere on the face of the planet that is "far away." Everything that happens, happens next door.

Spouting hypocrisy, Junior Bush stumbles toward WWIII

War is afoot

Events in Georgia are accelerating. Hang on to your hats, folks. Junior Bush just might attain Big Dick's highest aspirations: a Ragnarok-like conflagration that sets everyone straight.

The latest move by the administration is to use American military planes to send "humanitarian" aid to Georgia. The Russians are continuing to press their military advantage in spite of Russian President Medvedev's false order to "halt military operations."

Russian motives are plainly apparent. They are moving to protect their hegemony (in the traditional Russian way). In the past, Russia has shown restraint only when she recognized that aggression would be detrimental to her interests.

But now, with President Junior a weakened international figure, lacking popular support both abroad and in his own country, the Russians have calculated that they can strike. It may well be a colossal miscalculation. If an American military plane is shot down, or any of the American service personnel currently stationed in Georgia are killed... well, no one can know how things will progress from there, but events could quickly spin out of control.

Of course, the United States has played a significant part in generating this crisis. The Bush administration's policies and actions vis-a-vis Russia have not been subjected to nearly enough scrutiny. But, if we were to take the Russian perspective for just a moment, we can see that Junior's initiatives might be deemed as threatening. Consider:

• Bush has pushed for a missile defense shield, with stations in Poland, the Czech Republic, and other places. Sort of a Cuban missile incident in reverse.
• Bush has deployed military advisors and hundreds of millions in military aid to Georgia which sits squarely between the Black and Caspian Seas.
• Bush advocated independence from Serbia for Kosovo over strenuous Russian objections

As I stated in a previous post, the possibilities for political miscalculation in this situation and in the entire Near East are huge and growing exponentially. Georgian president Mikhal Saakashvili obviously misinterpreted the remarks that hapless Condi Rice made when she visited Georgia last month by believing that, if he were to move to secure South Ossetia, the United States would back him immediately and completely.

Don't these two inspire confidence?

If Condi were honest (I know, I know), the first thing she would say to Saakashvili when she arrives in Tblisi would be to quote Otter from Animal House: "You f**ked up - you trusted us!"
American leadership, rather than inspiring confidence, raises anxieties. Yesterday, Condi, without even a hint of irony, mewled at a press conference:

"This is not 1968 and the invasion of Czechoslovakia where Russia can threaten a neighbor, occupy a capital, overthrow a government and get away with it. Things have changed." --Condi Rice, August 13, 2008

How have things changed, Condi? Do tell! Did the United States not threaten a sovereign country, occupy a capital and overthrow a government as recently as 2003?

People, if that's not hypocrisy then the word has no meaning. And mad Johnny McCain's comments were just as audacious:

"...in the 21st century nations don't invade other nations." --John McCain, August 13, 2008

Let that statement linger in your mind for a minute.

Is it not simply jaw-dropping? Apart from the hypocrisy, if there were any doubts that McCain has thrown his lot in with the neo-conservatives, that remark should erase them.

Here it is, folks: an extremely dangerous world crisis brought about by the unilateralism, inconsistency, and fundamental dishonesty of fatuous, infantile Junior Bush and the neo-conservative movement.

Hope for the best. And be ready. Anything might happen.

Energy prices and food riots: pending apocalypse?

A recent scene in Haiti

I wonder, do the people of this country dare to turn away from American Idol and the NBA playoffs and even the ridiculous pageantry of American presidential politics for a moment and take a look at the ominous events that are occurring all over the world? Events that are even now permeating our national borders insidiously? Will they even notice that anything is happening? Or will they sit, insensate as the colloquial frog in the ever-warming pan of water, and flip through their cable television channels until the front door is kicked in and reality barges into their living rooms?

I'm talking about food riots.

Prices for food staples like rice and wheat have risen over the past several months by upwards of 75%, causing outbreaks of violence all over the globe.

Protest in India...

Predictably, the unfolding crisis is erupting first in the poorest countries: Indonesia, the Philippines, Cameroon. In Haiti, the government of Prime Minister Jacques Edouard Alexis was removed from office after a week of rioting by the nation's poor who were unable to afford basic food stuffs. I became aware of the crisis in a very personal manner, when my wife, whose country of birth is Burkina Faso, called her family and learned that there had been rioting and violence in Ouagadougou. Thankfully, my in-laws are safe and unharmed...for the moment.

...and Mexico...

Americans would be foolish to ignore the crisis; to write it off as something far away; something with which they need not be overly concerned. Writing a check to MercyCorps isn't going to make it all go away. Already, America's big box stores, with Walmart leading the way, are rationing rice purchases. Apparently, customers are being limited to no more than four 20-pound bags per visit.

Experts from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) attribute the rise in food prices directly to a rise in the price of oil, but also to global warming and the loss of arable land.

...and Egypt

Food shortages breed desperate, frantic people. Desperate, frantic people commit desperate, frantic acts. Governments fall; chaos and lawlessness prevail; violence and brute strength become the coin in trade for human interactions.

People, we are staring into the face of the beast.

The reasons behind the rise in the price of oil, the lifeblood of today's global economy, are myriad. But certainly, the greed of oil company executives factors into it. I cannot say that I believe that the Bush/Cheney cabal is entirely responsible for the crisis. I believe that they have exacerbated the problem, and hastened its onset, but it has been coming for years, if not decades.

Even as I have faith that all will be according to the plan of the Great Whatever, it seems to me that our immediate future is fraught with peril and anguish. It is long past time for all of us to look honestly at the dangers we face and determine what (if anything) can be done.

For my part, I hope I face whatever may come with courage. I hope I remain true to what I know in my heart to be right.

Keep your eyes on the minute-hand, people. It's nearly midnight.

Consequences of a failed surge: Turkey invades, Serbia defies

For the last 3 months, Bush apologists have been huffing and puffing about the success of the "surge" in Iraq. But a quick look at the hastening of international events casts doubt on any claims of progress. Meanwhile, political developments appear more and more to be leading us toward World War III.

Is the "surge" working?

Violence? What violence?

Bush apologists say that overall violence has fallen off in Iraq due to the increased troop levels brought about by the "surge." Putting aside the fact that American casualties over the last four months (128 since October) don't lend a lot of credence to that assertion, all we need do is look at the stated objectives of the surge, back when Junior was pushing it, in early 2007.

• The Iraqi government was to take responsibility for security by November 2007.
• The Iraqi government was to pass legislation that provided for the distribution of oil revenues amongst all Iraq's ethnic groups.
• The Iraqi government was to spend $10 billion on reconstruction and infrastructure.
• Iraq was to hold pronvicial elections.
• Iraq was to reform de-Baathification laws, and establish a process for modifying the Iraqi constitution.

Well, not a single one of these objectives has been met. You can read an assessment from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace here. In light of the failure to meet these objectives, the reduction in overall violence (to the extent that it is even real) would seem to be something that is, at best, a temporary ceasefire between warring factions.

Turkey has had enough

Turkish troops bound for Iraq

Meanwhile, Iraq's neighbor to the north, and an ostensible NATO ally, Turkey has apparently decided that the surge is not working. Frustrated at the Iraqi government's inability to deal with the problem of Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) rebels lobbing mortars across the border, Turkey launched an incursion into Iraq on February 22.

Back in October, Junior and company had urged Turkey not to invade, pleading for Ankara to give the Iraqi government a chance to address the problem and squelch the PKK. Well, the attacks have continued and the Turks have learned what everyone else from Tony Blair to victims of Hurricane Katrina have known for a while now: promises from this White House are like so much cotton candy. They just melt away to nothing.

The White House responded to the Turkish invasion with a mealy-mouthed whimper: "It's obviously not an ideal situation," White House spokeswoman Dana Perino told reporters. "We hope that this is a short-term incursion so that they can help deal with the threat."

Serbs scoff at Condi

Party time in Belgrade

American prestige suffered a huge setback last week when the American embassy in Belgrade was set aflame in protest to the United States recognition of Kosovo as a sovereign state much to Serbia's chagrin. International laughing-stock Condi Rice appeared impotent and toothless. "We do hold the Serb government responsible. We've made that very clear," she whined. "We don't expect that to happen again."

When an American embassy is attacked like that, while Serbian police and firefighters stand idly by, it is a direct slap at the administration and at Condi, specifically. The Serbs know the administration's credibility is so low that there is nothing it can do in response.

World War III looms

When the "surge" inevitably failed to bring about any real political change to the conditions in Iraq, America appeared helpless and weak. And, when American prestige is as low as it is, the possibility for political miscalculation is huge. A similar set of conditions existed in 1914 Europe. But, unlike back then, when the problems were somewhat centered in the Balkans, today's potential powder kegs stretch to all corners of the globe.

Many of the dangers that exist were not created by the Bush administration's illegal invasion of Iraq. But Junior, in his who-cares-about-tomorrow manner, has burned up nearly all of America's credibility and prestige in trying to defend that invasion, leaving this country helpless to effect the course of events. The administration's short-sighted and greedy agenda has made us all hostage to the political calculations of people like Vladimir Putin, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Osama bin Laden, and Pervez Musharraf.

Keep your seat belts fastened, folks.

World War III: The Pot is Starting to Boil

Hang on to your hats, folks! The glorious little war that Junior Bush and his neo-conservative bantam cocks started as their own geo-political mega-Viagra is on the verge of spreading. If it all plays out, the conflict could dwarf the global war that raged from 1937 to 1945. As much as the term is overused nowadays, "perfect storm" seems to apply here. Consider:

Kurdish territory is spread across many different Middle East nations

The Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), who have a long-running feud with the Turkish government, have allegedly been attacking locations in Turkey from Kurdish territory in Iraq. The Bush administration, in its latest hypocrisy, has urged Turkey not to violate Iraq's borders, even though the Turks are being attacked militarily. The ineffectual Iraqi government has vowed to crack down on these separatists in an attempt to forestall a threatened Turkish invasion of Iraqi territory.

"I am not satisfied that an alliance whose members have over 2 million soldiers, sailors, marines and airmen cannot find the modest additional resources that have been committed for Afghanistan." --Robert Gates, October 22, 2007

In Afghanistan, the Bush-installed Karzai regime has no power beyond the confines of Kabul, while the war continues against a resurgent Taliban. The Europeans and Canadians, although suspicious of the Bush administration, have previously committed themselves to that conflict when, shortly after 911, they invoked the NATO mutual defense clause. Now, they are stuck, like a child with his fingers in a Chinese finger trap, unable to get out and subjected to humiliating admonishments from US Defense Secretary Robert Gates for not doing enough.

They love to party in Karachi

The perpetually unstable (and nuclear-armed) Pakistan seems to be a lot more wobbly of late. Pervez Musharraf, Bush's favorite military strongman, is like an acrobat on a tightrope, teetering in a gust of wind. Radical elements recently tried to assassinate former prime minister, and western-friendly, Benazir Bhutto in a horrifying suicide bomb attack that killed over 130 people.

And just to keep things interesting, Israel recently conducted an air raid against targets in Syria with the tacit approval of the Bush administration. This was supposedly in response to a joint North Korean-Syrian "project" to which Likud party leader Binyamin Netanyahu and former US ambassador to the UN John Bolton attested. (As if that were enough.)

What do you see in his eyes now, Junior?

Lastly, and most interestingly, speculation continues about the intentions of the Bush administration regarding Iran. The drumbeat against Iran sounds eerily familiar to that used against Saddam Hussein pre-invasion: allegations of ties to terrorists, nuclear weapons programs. Vladimir Putin, the former KGB agent and current President of Russia, has been pretty chummy with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad lately, much to Junior's chagrin. This is undoubtedly in retaliation for the Bush administration's plans to implement a "missile defense shield" in Eastern Europe, which Putin says cannot be tolerated.

So, just outlining all of this, we have conflict involving Turkey, Iraq, Afghanistan, NATO, Pakistan, Syria, Israel, Iran, and Russia. Of course, there are other factors and interests that have yet to be weighed: Anything that involves an unstable Pakistan concerns India, which is also nuclear-armed. The Chinese, to this point, have been relatively silent, but one can be sure that they are watching. The Saudis, no doubt, are lobbying their sympathizers in the administration to be sure that their wealth is protected.

In short, the potential for a global conflict is there. The trigger might be a spectacular attack by fanatics, a Turkish incursion into Iraq, or more Israeli cowboy diplomacy. But we are balanced on the tip of the needle.

She's gonna save us?

One can hope for the best: Perhaps Congress and the Judiciary will finally find the stones to pin down the Bush administration on its myriad impeachable offenses and remove it from power. Or, although I believe most of the American public (indeed most of the world) is beyond hoping that the Bush administration has the wit and capability to find a way out, I suppose there is still some faint possibility it can avoid or at least stall the onset of global war until a more responsible party replaces it. But that hope is faint when you consider these 5 words: Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice.

No. I think our best and only hope, at this point, is that the sanity of normal, everyday people will win out. Perhaps Americans have had enough war now, after 4 fruitless years in Iraq, and will forestall any further madness. Remember the days before the Iraq war, when the people took to the streets in huge numbers? Some of the protests involved millions. Well, at some point, if this conflict is to be avoided, it's going to take an even bigger and more sustained effort. It's going to take people getting out in the street and staying there; clogging transportation, shutting down the infrastructure, demanding change.

The time is coming. Figure out where you stand and be ready.